A Demoralizing Gap for Chasers
Ten years ago, Ray Allen broke Reggie Miller’s three-point record. A decade later, Stephen Curry shattered Allen’s mark. While records are meant to be broken, Curry’s three-point milestone may stand the test of time. The reason? A gap so wide it feels insurmountable.
Unlike legacy-dominated categories like points, rebounds, assists, or blocks—where “ancient legends” still reign—the three-point leaderboard is a modern battleground. Of the NBA’s top 30 all-time three-point shooters, only Reggie Miller and Dale Ellis aren’t active or recently retired. This makes the three-point list the most fluid in NBA history, where even slight surges can rewrite rankings overnight.
For instance:
- LeBron James began this season with 1,979 threes, trailing Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd. After draining 10 threes in a week, he leapfrogged both.
- Paul George is poised to overtake Kobe Bryant and Chauncey Billups any game now.
Yet, despite this volatility, Curry’s lead over James Harden—the active player in second place—is nearly 500 threes. To close that gap, Harden would need to replicate his career-best season (378 threes in 2018-19) for 1.5 years—while Curry continues adding to his total.
Worse for chasers: Curry isn’t slowing down. He’s averaging a jaw-dropping 5.4 threes per game this season. Meanwhile, Harden’s production has halved due to rule changes and team dynamics. The gap between them has ballooned from 171 to 468 threes in just 1.5 seasons—and it’s still growing.
Other contenders? Even less hope:
- Damian Lillard trails by 800+ threes—three peak seasons away.
- LeBron, at his career-high pace (149 threes/year), would need to play until age 44.
- Kyle Lowry (35, 1,000+ behind) and Paul George (31, 1,100+ behind) are non-factors.
Curry’s dominance is akin to leading a 10K race by a full kilometer. In the three-point era, he’s lapped the field.
The Receding Three-Point Wave
When Ray Allen became the three-point king in 2011, his lead over Jason Kidd (808 threes) seemed untouchable. But nobody predicted the explosion of three-point shooting that followed. Over the past decade, teams embraced “Moreyball”—prioritizing threes and layups—turbocharging the stat. Curry rode this wave to immortality.
But the tide is turning.
The NBA’s rule changes this season—cracking down on non-basketball moves and foul-hunting—have dented elite shooters’ efficiency. League-wide three-point accuracy has plummeted to 34.7%, the lowest since 2003-04. Meanwhile, role players are launching more threes than ever (35.5 attempts per team per game), spreading volume thinner.
This creates a paradox:
- Elite shooters (e.g., James Harden, Luka Dončić) face tighter defenses, reducing their output.
- Role players shoot more but lack the volume to challenge records.
Take Duncan Robinson: After back-to-back 250+ three seasons (40% accuracy), his numbers cratered this year (2.9 threes/game, 33.6%). Even Trae Young—once hailed as “the next Curry”—has dialed back logo threes (7.1 attempts/game vs. 9.5 in 2019-20) to focus on efficiency.
The result? Sustaining Curry-like volume (career 3.8 threes/game) is now nearly impossible. This season’s No. 2, Buddy Hield, averages just 3.5/game.
How High Can Curry Go?
Curry owns 6 of the 16 seasons with 260+ threes. He’s the only player to hit 300+ threes with 40% accuracy—and he’s done it four times.
Assuming he plays until 38 (like Allen, Miller, and Kyle Korver):
- Ages 34-36: 270 threes/year (conservative estimate).
- Ages 37-38: 170-200 threes/year (post-peak decline).
That trajectory would push his career total to 4,000+ threes—a Mount Everest-like figure. For context:
- John Stockton’s assists record leads Jason Kidd by 3,715.
- Wilt Chamberlain’s rebounding mark tops Bill Russell by 2,304.
- Hakeem Olajuwon’s blocks lead Dikembe Mutombo by 541.
Curry’s final margin could dwarf them all.
The Ultimate Long Shot
If Curry hits 4,000 threes, even his teammate Andrew Wiggins—averaging 140/year—would need 24 more seasons to catch him. By then, Wiggins would be 50 years old.
So, will Curry’s record fall? In this era of rule changes, defensive schemes, and distributed shooting? Probably not.
The three-point king’s throne is his—and his alone—for generations to come.
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